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New funding to model solar geoengineering impacts
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The UK government is taking steps to research potential interventions that could reduce global warming by reflecting sunlight into space.
New research will model the risks and impacts of using solar radiation modification (SRM) to guide informed decision-making on climate interventions.
“This research could open new doors to address significant impacts of climate change - or tell us which should be shut,” said Dr Shaun Fitzgerald, Director of the Centre for Climate Repair at the University of Cambridge.
Dr Fitzgerald is leading one of the four projects receiving new funding from the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC).
Using computer modelling research, his team will evaluate the impacts of four different SRM approaches to provide actionable recommendations and risk assessments.
“We want to measure the cooling potential of these different options so we have a better idea of which – if any – should be explored further.”
Professor Louise Heathwaite, Executive Chair of the Natural Environment Research Council, has said that the UK government remains committed to delivering Net Zero and tackling the underlying causes of climate change.
“However, with the increased interest internationally in solar radiation modification measures, there is a pressing need to consider the impact of SRM approaches to control Earth system temperature.”
Cover image of ice thickening by Real Ice. Image for illustrative purposes only; field trials will not be a part of the NERC-funded projects.
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Dr Fitzgerald visited Cambridge Bay, Nunavut, in January to participate in field trials on ice thickening techniques with Real Ice. The new project will not involve any outdoor experiments but will use computer modelling to evaluate the impact of these ideas.
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The urgency to understand
In early 2025, the World Meteorological Organisation confirmed that 2024 was the hottest year on record, exceeding the 1.5˚C target set in the 2015 Paris Agreement.
It was not a surprise to climate scientists, but it was a stark warning that current mitigation efforts are not doing enough to stop this rise.
Research on additional measures to control temperature, like SRM, has been going on for years. The increasing impacts of global warming and the emergence of private start-ups have pushed it into the spotlight— and into the government’s eyeline.
SRM aims to reflect some of the Sun’s energy into space; techniques include marine cloud brightening and stratospheric aerosol intervention, both of which will also be modelled with this new funding.
The programme aligns with the UK Government’s position on SRM, which is that the UK is not deploying SRM and has no plans to do so.
“We don’t currently know enough to consider deployment,” said Dr Fitzgerald, “but we need to build up our understanding before countries potentially start using these methods out of desperation.”
The new funding of £10 million will support four research projects, launching in April, that aim to improve understanding of potential impacts and inform future decisions.
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Frost on ice in the Arctic during field trials. Dr Fitzgerald and his team will evaluate the impact of SRM techniques on climate dynamics.
Cooling potential
Across the four projects, researchers from ten universities in the UK and one in Norway will assess a number of SRM approaches and their impacts.
Studies will consider the local and global impacts of cooling techniques, using climate and weather models to address potential side-effects and mitigating factors.
Dr Fitzgerald’s team will use Earth System Models to explore the cooling potential of each SRM approach across different temperature scenarios, including the critical 1.5˚C goal.
The project, “ECLIPSE: Evaluation of Climate Intervention through novel Potential Strategies”, will be a collaboration between the universities of Cambridge, Exeter and Imperial College London.
“Temperature control is not about putting a plaster on climate change and forgetting all about it,” he said. “It’s about protecting the most vulnerable people and places while we get emissions and ultimately greenhouse gas levels down.”
They will also draw on the findings of the other projects to produce a comprehensive report to guide informed climate decisions.
“We are pleased the UK government is supporting rigorous research on measures that could make a real difference in tackling climate change.”
NERC, with support from Sciencewise, is also commissioning a public dialogue to engage a diverse group and understand what public views and considerations are on SRM.
The research projects will start in April 2025. The public dialogue will happen in the latter half of 2025 and into the beginning of 2026.
ECLIPSE: Evaluation of Climate Intervention through novel Potential Strategies
The universities of Cambridge, Exeter and Imperial College London
This research will evaluate the climatic impacts of four solar radiation modification (SRM) approaches, including cellulose nanocrystals (CNCs) for stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI). The project will assess these methods across various temperature scenarios, including the critical 1.5˚C goal, analysing their effects on radiative forcing, temperature changes, and associated risks.
Using Earth System Models, the project will explore the cooling potential of each SRM approach. Work Package 1 will focus on reducing uncertainty in cloud thinning for cooling by integrating observational data to refine climate model simulations.
Work Package 2 will assess the regional cooling effects of Marine Sky Brightening over the Mediterranean Sea. Work Package 3 will evaluate the impact of sea ice flooding on climate dynamics. Work Package 4 will study the effects of CNCs for SRM.
The final Work Package will integrate findings into a comprehensive report, providing actionable recommendations and risk assessments for SRM approaches, guiding informed climate intervention decisions. This will also draw upon outputs from the other projects funded by NERC.
