Public perceptions

Using big data, researchers are studying public perceptions of solar geoengineering and mapping connections to related issues and ideologies. Topics include conspiracy spillovers, political ideology, and attention.

The idea

The following papers form part of our big data research into public perceptions. Click the titles to read in full.

Conspiracy spillovers and geoengineering

Geoengineering techniques such as solar radiation management (SRM) could be part of a future technology portfolio to limit global temperature change. However, there is public opposition to research and deployment of SRM technologies. We use 814,924 English-language tweets containing #geoengineering globally over 13 years (2009–2021) to explore public emotions, perceptions, and attitudes toward SRM using natural language processing, deep learning, and network analysis. We find that specific conspiracy theories influence public reactions toward geoengineering, especially regarding “chemtrails” (whereby airplanes allegedly spray poison or modify weather through contrails). Furthermore, conspiracies tend to spillover, shaping regional debates in the UK, USA, India, and Sweden and connecting with broader political considerations. We also find that positive emotions rise on both the global and country scales following events related to SRM governance, and negative and neutral emotions increase following SRM projects and announcements of experiments. Finally, we also find that online toxicity shapes the breadth of spillover effects, further influencing anti-SRM views.

Political ideology and views toward solar geoengineering in the United States

Political polarization remains a significant barrier to effective climate action in the United States. Conservatives often express skepticism toward climate change policies emphasizing government intervention, while liberals are generally more supportive of these efforts. Solar geoengineering (SG), an emerging technology proposed to cool the Earth’s atmosphere, offers a climate intervention that may transcend entrenched ideological divides. SG remains relatively unknown to the public and has not yet been widely framed in partisan terms. Moreover, its perceived nature as a technological solution could appeal to conservatives resistant to traditional climate measures. This study investigates the relationship between political ideology and public attitudes toward SG, conditional on respondents’ familiarity with the technology. Using a nationally representative sample of 2,109 American voters and applying linear probability and multinomial logistic regression models, we find that greater familiarity with SG is associated with reduced political polarization regarding SG’s perceived effectiveness, associated risks, and preferred climate strategies. Our findings suggest that increasing public awareness of SG could foster bipartisan engagement with climate policy, helping bridge the ideological divide.

Deciphering public attention to geoengineering and climate issues using machine learning and dynamic analysis

As the conversation around using geoengineering to combat climate change intensifies, it is imperative to engage the public and deeply understand their perspectives on geoengineering research, development, and potential deployment. Through a comprehensive data-driven investigation, this paper explores the types of news that captivate public interest in geoengineering. We delved into 30,773 English-language news articles from the BBC and the New York Times, combined with Google Trends data spanning 2018 to 2022, to explore how public interest in geoengineering fluctuates in response to news coverage of broader climate issues. Using BERT-based topic modeling, sentiment analysis, and time-series regression models, we found that positive sentiment in energy-related news serves as a good predictor of heightened public interest in geoengineering, a trend that persists over time. Our findings suggest that public engagement with geoengineering and climate action is not uniform, with some topics being more potent in shaping interest over time, such as climate news related to energy, disasters, and politics. Understanding these patterns is crucial for scientists, policymakers, and educators aiming to craft effective strategies for engaging with the public and fostering dialogue around emerging climate technologies.